India and Pakistan stand on the brink of armed conflict as both nuclear powers dismantle decades-old peace treaties following a deadly attack in Kashmir that killed Indian tourists.
At a Glance
- Pakistan suspended the 1972 Shimla peace accord and threatened military retaliation after India revoked the Indus Waters Treaty
- Both nations have cut diplomatic ties, closed borders, and disrupted air travel following a terrorist attack in Kashmir
- India blames Pakistan for the deadliest attack on civilians in Kashmir since 2000, identifying two Pakistani nationals as suspects
- Pakistan has warned that any disruption to water supplies under the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered “an act of war”
- Prime Minister Modi has vowed to “identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers”
Kashmir Attack Triggers Diplomatic Crisis
The massacre of Indian tourists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam region has pushed India and Pakistan toward their most serious confrontation in years. Indian authorities have identified three suspects in the attack, claiming two are Pakistani nationals. Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly condemned the killings as the deadliest attack on civilians in Kashmir since 2000 and summoned a meeting with opposition parties to coordinate a national response. The Indian government has already moved to isolate Pakistan diplomatically and economically.
India has summoned Pakistan’s top diplomat, closed a key land border crossing, suspended visa exemptions for Pakistani citizens, and taken the extraordinary step of suspending the Indus Waters Treaty – a 1960 agreement that has survived three wars between the nuclear-armed neighbors. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank, regulates water sharing from six rivers flowing from India into Pakistan and is considered vital for Pakistani agriculture.
‼️‼️‼️ Tensions between Pakistan and India are escalating.
An emergency meeting of Pakistan’s National Security Council has concluded, during which significant decisions were made.
Pakistan announces the immediate suspension of all trade relations with India, including the… pic.twitter.com/pgDEQKXQIV
— Visioner (@visionergeo) April 24, 2025
Pakistan’s Escalating Response
Pakistan has vehemently denied any involvement in the Kashmir attack and responded with increasingly severe measures. The government expelled Indian defense, naval, and air advisers from Pakistan, closed its airspace to Indian aircraft, canceled visas for Indian nationals, and suspended trade. Most significantly, Pakistan’s National Security Committee announced the suspension of the 1972 Shimla Agreement, a foundational peace treaty signed after the 1971 war that established principles for bilateral relations.
“Pakistan declares the Indian defence, naval and air advisers in Islamabad persona non grata. They are directed to leave Pakistan immediately”, said office of the prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif.
Pakistan’s leadership has made clear it views India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as a potential casus belli. Pakistani officials warned that any disruption to water flows would receive a military response, a particularly serious threat as Pakistan’s critical agricultural sowing season approaches. The country is already facing significant economic challenges, and water shortages could devastate its agricultural sector, which employs nearly 40% of the workforce.
Pakistan to suspend peace treaty with India as tensions grow over Kashmir killings via @FT
https://t.co/fqtzlT13vD— John Reed (@JohnReedwrites) April 24, 2025
Water as a Weapon
The Indus Waters Treaty has been one of the world’s most durable water-sharing agreements, surviving multiple wars between India and Pakistan since 1960. The agreement allocates the waters of three eastern rivers – the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – to India, while Pakistan receives the waters of the western rivers – the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. These western rivers account for approximately 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural water supply and are critical for power generation and daily life.
India’s decision to suspend the treaty marks a significant escalation from previous disputes. While India has threatened to review or modify the treaty following past terrorist incidents, this is the first time it has announced a full suspension.
The move comes as tensions were already elevated following India’s 2019 decision to revoke Kashmir’s semi-autonomous status, a move that Pakistan strongly opposed and that effectively froze diplomatic relations between the neighbors.
Threat of Military Confrontation
Both nuclear-armed nations have issued warnings about potential military action. Prime Minister Modi vowed that India would pursue those responsible for the attack regardless of where they might be located, while Pakistan’s foreign minister Ishaq Dar promised a proportional response to any Indian military operation.
The Pakistani government has stated it will retaliate “with full force across the complete spectrum of national power” if India disrupts water flows under the Indus Waters Treaty.
The dispute over Kashmir has been a flashpoint between India and Pakistan since their independence from British rule in 1947. Both countries claim the territory in full but control only portions of it. The region has seen decades of insurgency, with India frequently accusing Pakistan of supporting militant groups operating in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan has consistently denied these allegations and accuses India of human rights abuses against Kashmiris.
