Over the last several years, an intense cultural war has engulfed the United States. Conservatives, progressives, and moderates have clashed. Topics like gender roles, climate change, and others have been placed at the forefront of national politics and utilized by Democrats to motivate voters to turn out to the polls. Another issue that has been made a central focus of political campaigns by public officials on the left has been that of abortion. In 1973, abortion was legalized at the federal level after Roe v. Wade was decided by the Supreme Court. In 2022, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, Roe was overturned, and the issue returned to the states to be decided.
Progressive Democrats at large have successfully exploited this decision to motivate voters and garner broad federal electoral support for their policies and party which may have been unpopular otherwise. Indeed, in the 2022 midterms when many forecasted a poor electoral climate for Democrats, the party did surprisingly well, holding onto the senate, gaining another seat and only losing control of the House of Representatives by a very small margin, scoring a major political victory during a very hostile election cycle. In truth, the majority of Americans have a poor view of the GOP. Moderates and independents the party desperately needs remain wary of supporting Republican candidates due to their extremism on the issue, and hardline conservatives are also disgusted with the national party as of late. Many new right-wing voters joined the party following the election of Donald Trump in 2016 and believe that the “old guard” establishment figures in the GOP are corrupt like Democrats and do not hold their best interests at heart.
Recently, a top predictor of Presidential election contests who has never been wrong about a predicted election result stated that he will not make a final prediction on the 2024 presidential race until August. He claimed Biden currently still leads Trump.
