A recent analysis of the latest New York Times/Siena College poll suggests that former President Donald Trump could hold a significant edge over President Joe Biden in the 2024 election.
The data indicates a notable level of support for Trump among people who did not participate in the 2020 election, with 49 percent of non-voters showing a preference for Trump over the 33 percent favoring Biden. This preference implies that Trump has the potential to influence this key demographic to support him in the upcoming election.
Additionally, non-voters enthusiasm leans significantly towards Trump, with a majority also predicting his win in the 2024 election, irrespective of their support for him. The survey revealed that 57 percent of non-voters expect Trump to win, compared to 29 percent who think Biden will secure reelection.
Trey Hood, the director of the survey research center at the University of Georgia’s School of Public & International Affairs, highlighted the significance of these findings. He emphasized that activating participation from a previously disengaged group like non-voters could be a game-changer for someone like Trump.
Hood suggested that Trump’s appeal to this demographic might stem from the impact of current economic conditions, such as inflation and the high cost of living. This appeal could prove advantageous for Trump in crucial battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Moreover, the poll revealed that a considerable majority of non-voters, 62 percent, do not believe that Biden’s policies have made a significant difference in their lives. Twenty-eight percent of non-voters claimed that Biden’s policies have personally harmed them, while only 8 percent feel they have been helped.
These numbers concern Biden, as they indicate low approval ratings and a trailing position behind Trump in the polls, eight months ahead of Election Day. According to the Saturday poll, Trump holds a five-point lead among registered voters.
In a different focus group, Steven Schier, Emeritus Congdon Professor of Political Science at Carleton College, observed results that mirrored these findings. He noted that swing voters found it easier to recall Trump’s achievements in office than Biden’s. Strategist Alex Patton advised caution in making definitive predictions about the outcome of the November election based on current trends.
While he acknowledged the New York Times/Siena poll as a standard of accuracy, he stressed the significance of accounting for the margin of error and the dangers of making detailed predictions prematurely.
