In a surprising turn of events, former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in head-to-head matchups in all seven central swing states less than a year before Election Day. According to a newly released Morning Consult poll, Trump maintains a solid lead over Biden in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina.
Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden in Georgia and North Carolina, with margins of 6 and 9 points, respectively. In the other five states, Trump’s advantage falls within the margin of error, ranging from 2 to 4 points. Overall, Trump surpasses Biden by 5 points across all swing states combined, a lead well beyond the margin of error.
While Biden still commands the support of Generation Z voters, with 44 percent favoring him compared to Trump’s 38 percent, his overall backing has fluctuated after nearly three years in the White House. Much of this discontent stems from Biden’s inability to fulfill promises regarding student loan forgiveness. Among Gen Z voters, 43 percent believe he has not adequately addressed student loans, in contrast to 27 percent of all respondents.
Morning Consult’s U.S. political analyst, Eli Yokley, notes that Biden “is making no gains among groups he is going to need to pull off a victory next year.” This lack of progress in critical demographics could prove detrimental to Biden’s chances of securing a second term.
One possible factor contributing to Biden’s drop in support is his handling of critical issues such as the economy and the Israel-Hamas conflict. Across all seven states, 51 percent of respondents trust Trump more to handle the economy, while only 33 percent say the same of Biden. Similarly, 44 percent trust Trump more regarding the Middle East conflict than Biden’s 33 percent.
Interestingly, this latest poll comes after House Republicans passed a resolution formally authorizing a Biden-impeachment inquiry, a critical issue that has divided voters. In the surveyed swing states, 45 percent express some level of support for the impeachment probe, while 42 percent oppose it. The investigation revolves around allegations of Biden’s involvement in his family’s business practices.
A national poll by the Wall Street Journal further underscores Trump’s growing lead over Biden across the entire United States. Trump’s lead extends to 6 points when five potential third-party candidates are included. Additionally, the poll reveals Biden’s approval rating has hit a new low of 37 percent.
Despite these concerning findings, Biden’s campaign remains focused on highlighting the distinctions between what they perceive as the “extreme MAGA agenda” and Biden’s popular agenda that has delivered for young people and Americans of all ages, according to campaign spokesman Daniel Wessel.
The Morning Consult poll surveyed 4,935 registered voters from November 27 to December 6, with a margin of error of 1 percentage point for all seven states. The margin of error ranges from 3 to 5 points for individual states.