Could Zelenskyy hold onto power despite plummeting approval ratings and growing war fatigue? Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections during martial law, yet U.S. and Russian officials are pushing for a vote as part of any peace deal.
At a glance:
- Ukrainian elections are prohibited under martial law but may be required in a peace deal
- Zelenskyy’s approval ratings have plummeted from 90% to around 50% since the war began
- Former military leader Valerii Zaluzhnyi has higher favorable ratings (62%) than Zelenskyy
- 52% of Ukrainians now favor negotiations with Russia, up from 27% in 2022
- U.S. Envoy Keith Kellogg suggested holding elections by the end of this year if peace is achieved
Zelenskyy’s Political Standing Weakens As War Drags On
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy faces significant political challenges as his popularity has declined dramatically since Russia’s invasion began in 2022. His approval ratings have fallen nearly 40% from their wartime peak of 90%, settling around 50% according to recent polls.
The Ukrainian constitution explicitly prohibits elections during martial law, creating a constitutional barrier to any vote while the conflict continues. Despite this legal obstacle, both U.S. and Russian officials have indicated elections should be part of any peace agreement.
Growing Calls For Peace Amid Election Uncertainty
Former Trump administration official Keith Kellogg, now serving as an Envoy, suggested Ukraine should hold elections by the end of this year if a peace deal is reached. Zelenskyy responded to this proposal with caution, stating: “It is very important for Kellogg to come to Ukraine. Then he would understand the people and all our circumstances.”
Meanwhile, Ukraine expert Andrew D’Anieri from the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center warned against rushing into elections, stating: “The only person that benefits from elections before there’s a durable peace deal is Putin.” This assessment reflects concerns that premature elections could provide Russia an opportunity to further destabilize Ukraine.
Polling data reveals a significant shift in Ukrainian public opinion toward the war effort. Gallup’s latest survey shows 52% of Ukrainians now support negotiations with Russia, a dramatic increase from just 27% in 2022 when the conflict began.
Potential Challengers And Election Timeline
Former Ukrainian military commander Valerii Zaluzhnyi has emerged as Zelenskyy’s likely main challenger in any future election. Polls show Zaluzhnyi currently enjoys higher favorable ratings (62%) than Zelenskyy, though in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Zelenskyy still leads 44% to 21%.
Zelenskyy faces additional challenges beyond declining popularity, including the loss of support from his former financial backer Ihor Kolomoyski. The oligarch now faces legal charges and can no longer provide the political and media support that helped propel Zelenskyy to victory in 2019.
Election experts suggest that even if peace were achieved soon, proper elections would require extensive preparation and likely couldn’t be held until at least 2026. This timeline conflicts with former President Petro Poroshenko’s ambitious prediction that elections would occur this October.
The European Council of Foreign Relations found a growing pessimism among Ukrainians about the war’s outcome, with 47% now expecting a compromise resolution rather than outright victory. This shift in public sentiment could significantly impact Zelenskyy’s reelection prospects whenever Ukrainians finally head to the polls.
