The United States and China are set to resume high-level trade talks in Geneva this week, marking the first significant attempt to resolve the escalating tariff war between the world’s two largest economies.
At a Glance
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng from May 9-12 in Switzerland
- President Trump has imposed tariffs of up to 145% on Chinese goods, with China retaliating with 125% levies on US products
- The talks aim to deescalate tensions rather than deliver an immediate comprehensive trade deal
- Financial markets in both countries have responded positively to news of the talks
- Experts warn negotiations could take months with no guarantee of success
First High-Level Meeting Since Trump’s Return
The upcoming trade talks in Switzerland represent the first major diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing since Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng attended Trump’s inauguration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the American delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will represent Beijing during the four-day meeting scheduled from May 9 to 12.
The stakes could hardly be higher for both nations. Under President Trump’s direction, the United States has levied import taxes on Chinese goods reaching as high as 145%, while China has retaliated with tariffs of up to 125% on American products. This exchange of economic blows has disrupted global supply chains, rattled financial markets, and threatened to push both economies toward deeper troubles.
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Realistic Expectations for the Negotiations
Despite hopes for a breakthrough, officials and analysts are tempering expectations about immediate outcomes. Both sides appear to be approaching the talks with measured goals, focusing first on de-escalation rather than comprehensive resolution. The Treasury Secretary has been clear about his priorities entering the discussions.
“My sense is that this will be about de-escalation, not about the big trade deal, but we’ve got to de-escalate before we can move forward”, said Mr. Bessent.
Bessent has described the current tariff situation as “the equivalent of an embargo,” while emphasizing that the administration’s goal isn’t to sever economic ties with China. “We don’t want to decouple. What we want is fair trade,” he stated, indicating a willingness to find middle ground that protects American interests while maintaining necessary economic relations with Beijing.
#MediaFocus A BBC report points out that the #Trump administration has recently shown signs of concession in its #tariff policies, but the policy flip-flops have led to market turbulence. Amid this, European nations are seeking balance in the China-US rivalry, offering #China new… pic.twitter.com/FZIKOrPv1b
— China Daily (@ChinaDaily) May 1, 2025
China’s Position and Market Response
The Chinese commerce ministry has signaled conditional openness to negotiations while maintaining a firm stance on what it sees as American aggression. A ministry spokesperson pointedly addressed the U.S. position before the talks, calling on Washington to recognize the damage caused by unilateral tariff measures. Chinese state media reports suggest Beijing is participating in the talks after considering international expectations and its own economic interests.
“If the United States wants to resolve the issue through negotiations, it must face up to the serious negative impact of unilateral tariff measures on itself and the world”, said a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson.
Financial markets have responded favorably to news of the negotiations. Stock indices in mainland China and Hong Kong rose following the announcement, buoyed also by economic support measures recently introduced by Chinese authorities. Similarly, U.S. stock futures showed gains, suggesting investors see potential value in even preliminary trade discussions between the economic powers.
Long Road Ahead
Trade experts and political analysts broadly agree that resolving the complex trade disputes will require patience and sustained diplomatic effort. Global trade specialists anticipate negotiations could stretch over several months, with no guarantee of a successful conclusion. Both sides bring deep-seated concerns and long-standing grievances to the table, complicating the path toward mutual agreement.
“You have to start somewhere, so I’m not saying it isn’t worthwhile. Just unlikely to be the launch event people are hoping to see”, said Deborah Elms.
A realistic outcome might involve the gradual reduction of the most punitive tariffs while maintaining some level of trade restrictions. Sources familiar with the negotiations suggest the United States could potentially remove the steepest tariffs while maintaining duties around 20% on Chinese goods – a significant reduction from current levels but still substantial enough to protect American industries and maintain leverage for future talks.
