Ted Cruz Has 5-Point Lead Over Challenger

Recent polling spells bad news for Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz’s reelection hopes for 2024.

In a poll released last week by the University of Texas at Tyler, Cruz’s Democrat challenger, Congressman Colin Allred, is only trailing the Republican incumbent by 5 points in a state that is traditionally believed to be deep red, with 42 percent of respondents picking Cruz and 37 percent picking Allred.

Cruz is also struggling with respondents in terms of favorability, with only 41 percent having a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion of the Senator while 49 percent having a “somewhat” or “very” unfavorable view.

By comparison, 48 percent of respondents said they didn’t know enough about Colin Allred to have an opinion either way. Of those who did, 21 percent have a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion and 19 percent have a “somewhat” or “very” unfavorable opinion.

The poll was conducted between May 10 and May 21 and included 1,413 registered voters, 30 percent Democrat, 39 percent Republican, and 31 percent Independent.

Allred’s entry in the 2024 race prompted Roll Call to add Senator Cruz to its list of ten incumbent senators whose seats are considered vulnerable in 2024.

Last week, Roll Call’s Inside Elections downgraded the Texas Senate race from Solid Republican to Battleground. The more traditional categories of Toss-up, Tilt, Lean, and Likely will not be assigned to the race until later this summer.

According to Roll Call, changing the Texas race to Battleground is significant as it makes Senator Cruz the first Republican to receive that rating in 2024.

The other senators whose races are rated Battleground are Democrat Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Jon Tester of Montana, Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Jacky Rosen of Nevada, Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, and Tim Kaine of Virginia, and Independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema.