The reelection prospects of President Joe Biden in 2024 are in jeopardy because former president Donald Trump is experiencing unparalleled polling success compared to his 2020 and 2016 presidential campaigns, even while facing four criminal charges by Biden’s DOJ.
Based on polling data collected by RealClearPolitics, Trump has established himself as the clear frontrunner in 91 national surveys for a theoretical head-to-head battle, surpassing his prior marks set against Clinton in 2016 (with 306 Electoral College votes) and Biden in 2020.
The combination of Trump’s historically strong showing in polls and his history of outperforming his average in key areas gives him a good probability of winning reelection in 2024.
With a 2.6-point national lead against Biden on November 26th, the ex-president has already achieved his greatest RCP average lead as a Republican.
His current candidacy is superior compared to his 2016 and 2020 campaigns, according to John McLaughlin, CEO and partner of McLaughlin & Associates. He is well-versed in the policies, has his priorities straight, knows the issues, and understands his role.
The RCP average has Trump 2 points ahead of Biden in Michigan and 1.5 points ahead in Pennsylvania this cycle. He has led eleven polls in Pennsylvania and four in Michigan this year, virtually breaking his 2016 and 2020 records.
Trump has won three polls, surpassing his 2016 and nearly 2020 records, despite Biden’s 0.7-point RCP average edge in Wisconsin.
According to a report, among sitting presidents, Biden has the lowest popularity rating heading into the election year, at 37%, according to Gallup. In November 1979, Democrat president Jimmy Carter was at 40% approval and lost by almost 10 points to Republican Ronald Reagan the following year.
Trump leads the field by 48 points in the RCP average for a national Republican primary in 2024, according to polls taken in November.
Next on the list is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis with 13.6%, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley with 9.6%, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy with 4.8%.
According to the RCP average, Biden leads by 67 percent in the same period. Self-help guru Marianne Williamson has 9 percent, and Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips has 3.5 percent in the Democrat primary.