The Starlink mega constellation, operated by SpaceX, has increased its collision avoidance maneuver count from the previous half-year to approximately 50,000 in the past six months. The drop in SpaceX’s maneuvering threshold is responsible for this rise; as a result, the company’s satellites now move to prevent collisions even when the likelihood of a smashup is extremely low, at one in a million. In just six months, the number of spacecraft in the Starlink constellation increased from 5,100 to 6,200.
After swiftly becoming the most prominent satellite operator in the world, SpaceX started installing the Starlink constellation in May 2019. As it ushered in a new age of orbital travel when conducting collision-avoidance maneuvers was a daily need rather than an occasional annoyance, the mega constellation immediately became a cause for concern among space sustainability specialists. The number of evasive maneuvers doubled every six months for the first four years after the initial Starlink launch, reaching 25,299 in the half-year leading up to May 31, 2023. Despite an increase in the number of satellites, the number of movements was constant from May to December 2023.
According to Hugh Lewis, Europe’s premier space sustainability specialist and professor of astronautics at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom, the recent increase must be primarily attributable to SpaceX’s lower maneuvering threshold. Under the same conditions, Starlink satellites would have completed over 25,000 movements between December 1, 2023, and May 31, 2024.
Solar eruptions, such as coronal mass ejections, thicken the thin gas in Earth’s upper atmosphere, where satellites orbit. As a result of space weather, the spacecraft are dragged to lower altitudes by the increased drag. New research found that satellites in low Earth orbit were lowered by nearly half a mile due to a severe solar storm that struck Earth in May of this year.
The Starlink satellites use their built-in artificial intelligence to decide how to avoid other objects without human intervention. The increasing frequency of movements aims to make orbital operations safer, but it may negatively impact collision forecasts. When a satellite’s lifetime comes to an end, SpaceX deorbits it in accordance with its zero-debris policy.
