Big News For The GOP Shows New Districts Not Going To Help As Much As Previously Thought

( Republicans were hoping that the new congressional maps that were drawn following the 2020 Census would work in their favor ahead of the midterm elections later this year.

Some Republicans, including Texas Representative Ronny Jackson, thought that redistricting “alone should get us the majority back” in the House and the Senate.

But, after all has been said and done, it doesn’t appear as if the redistricting will work out that same way. Instead, Democrats may have received an edge in redistricting. The process ultimately results in some states losing seats and others gaining seats, and even draws congressional district lines in new ways.

This advantage for Democrats still may not be enough to save the liberals’ majority in both chambers of Congress, as voters seem to be souring on the party, in part because of President Joe Biden’s extremely low approval rating.

What the redistricting advantage may do is give Democrats a fighting chance that Republicans were hoping wouldn’t be there.

Some independent outlets have completed assessments that Democrats may gain a redistricting advantage of two or three seats in the House once every state in the nation finishes redrawing their districts.

The Cook Political Report is one of those outlets, and its national elections analyst, Dave Waserman, said:

“We’re comparing this round to a baseline that was very favorable to Republicans. No doubt about it. It was always going to be hard for the map to get much worse for Democrats than the ones that were passed in 2011.

“We estimate that Democrats are on pace to net two seats owing to new maps alone. That sounds like a positive for Democrats, and it is, but it’s a pretty small shift.”

In fact, Wasserman added that 2022 redistricting is “shaping up to be a wash.” The aggressive changes the Democrats were able to institute happened in New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, New York, California, Michigan, New Jersey and Illinois.

Some of these states lost congressional seats because of the outcome of the Census, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, New York, California and Illinois.

Not all people agree with the analysis, though. The National Republican Redistricting Trust’s executive director, Adam Kincaid, said he believed the GOP would actually benefit in Nevada.

Commenting to the Washington Examiner recently, Kincaid said of Democrats:

“I don’t believe they have an advantage. I think the playing field is right where we thought it was. Our goal through this whole process was to put ourselves in a good position to take the majority this fall and have a shot at holding it for future cycles.”

The midterm elections back in 2010 in which Republicans made great strides ended up giving the GOP a significant redistricting advantage in 2011. In the subsequent maps that were drawn, Wasserman estimated that the GOP gained an advantage of between five to 10 congressional seats.

Democrats won’t be gaining that type of advantage this time around, but they’re hoping every little bit helps them hold onto their slim majorities in the House and Senate.